Roadmap Promise Tracker

MeasuredIBMQubit count

Debut the 127-qubit Eagle processor in 2021.

Delivered November 16, 2021. On time. Unveiled Nov 16, 2021 at IBM Quantum Summit 2021.

Promise: research.ibm.com (roadmap, Sep 15, 2020) · Delivery: newsroom.ibm.com (Nov 16, 2021) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

MeasuredIBMQubit count

Deliver the 433-qubit Osprey processor in 2022.

Delivered November 9, 2022. On time. Unveiled Nov 9, 2022 at IBM Quantum Summit 2022.

Promise: research.ibm.com (roadmap, Sep 15, 2020) · Delivery: newsroom.ibm.com (Nov 9, 2022) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

MeasuredIBMQubit count

Debut the 1,121-qubit Condor processor in 2023.

Delivered December 4, 2023. On time. Introduced Dec 4, 2023. IBM said its performance was comparable to the 433-qubit Osprey and made the 133-qubit Heron the base of its roadmap.

Promise: research.ibm.com (roadmap, Sep 15, 2020) · Delivery: ibm.com (Dec 4, 2023) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

MeasuredIBMRoadmap milestone

Heron to reach 5,000 two-qubit gates in 2024.

Delivered November 13, 2024. On time. IBM said Heron with Qiskit runs certain classes of circuits with up to 5,000 two-qubit gates (Nov 13, 2024).

Promise: ibm.com (roadmap, Dec 4, 2023) · Delivery: newsroom.ibm.com (Nov 13, 2024) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

MeasuredIonQRoadmap milestoneCompany-reported

Reach 35 algorithmic qubits (#AQ 35), IonQ's 2024 technical performance milestone.

Delivered January 25, 2024. On time. IonQ reported #AQ 35 on Forte on Jan 25, 2024. #AQ is IonQ's own benchmark.

Promise: investors.ionq.com (press release, Jan 25, 2024) · Delivery: investors.ionq.com (Jan 25, 2024) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

MeasuredRigetti ComputingFidelity or error target

By mid-2025, release a 36-qubit system (four 9-qubit chips) with a targeted 99.5% median two-qubit fidelity.

Delivered August 12, 2025. On-time not scored. 99.5% median two-qubit fidelity on the 36-qubit system announced Jul 16, 2025 (8-K); Cepheus-1-36Q generally available Aug 12, 2025.

Promise: investors.rigetti.com (earnings release, Nov 12, 2024) · Delivery: sec.gov (Aug 12, 2025) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

MeasuredIBMRoadmap milestoneCompany-reported

Loon processor in 2025, with c-couplers for long-range on-chip connections (fault-tolerance components).

Delivered November 12, 2025. On time. Announced Nov 12, 2025 as an experimental processor; IBM has not stated when outside users get access.

Promise: ibm.com (company blog, Jun 10, 2025) · Delivery: newsroom.ibm.com (Nov 12, 2025) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

MeasuredIBMProduct launch

Nighthawk (120 qubits, 218 tunable couplers) to be delivered to IBM users by the end of 2025.

Delivered December 2025. On time. ibm_miami (first Nighthawk) made available as an exploratory early-access preview in Dec 2025.

Promise: newsroom.ibm.com (press release, Nov 12, 2025) · Delivery: ibm.com (Dec 31, 2025) · Checked: Oct 17, 2026

MeasuredIonQRoadmap milestoneCompany-reported

Reach 64 algorithmic qubits (#AQ 64), IonQ's 2025 performance target.

Delivered September 25, 2025. On time. IonQ reported #AQ 64 on a Tempo system on Sep 25, 2025, three months before the 2025 target. IonQ then moved to physical, logical and application metrics.

Promise: investors.ionq.com (press release, Sep 25, 2025) · Delivery: ionq.com (Oct 13, 2025) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

MeasuredQuantinuumProduct launch

Helios to launch in 2025 as the next system on the accelerated roadmap.

Delivered November 5, 2025. On time. Commercially launched Nov 5, 2025 (98 physical qubits).

Promise: quantinuum.com (press release, Sep 10, 2024) · Delivery: quantinuum.com (Nov 5, 2025) · Checked: Oct 17, 2026

MissedRigetti ComputingFidelity or error target

By the end of 2025, release a system with over 100 qubits at a targeted 99.5% median two-qubit fidelity.

Deadline passed without delivery. The 108-qubit Cepheus-1 became generally available in April 2026 at about 99.1% median two-qubit fidelity; 99.5% is now targeted for later in 2026.

Promise: investors.rigetti.com (earnings release, Nov 12, 2024) · Latest evidence: sec.gov · Follow-up: 108 qubits at 99.5% · Checked: Oct 17, 2026

PromisedPasqalRoadmap milestoneAdvantage not yet verified

Demonstrate quantum advantage on an industry-relevant problem by the end of Q1 2026.

Pasqal's H1 2026 release says it can deliver quantum advantage today, citing a 256-atom TmMgGaO4 simulation (arXiv preprint, Mar 2026). It stays Promised until the claim is peer-reviewed or released as a public dataset.

Promise: pasqal.com (roadmap, Oct 17, 2026) · Latest evidence: pasqal.com (Sep 24, 2026) · Advantage claim: arxiv.org (preprint; no peer-reviewed version found) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

MissedIQM Quantum ComputersSystem delivery

Deliver a 150-qubit superconducting system to VTT in Finland in mid-2026, as the first stage of a 300-qubit system.

Deadline passed without delivery. New date: late 2026. IQM's Sep 9, 2026 post, published after the mid-2026 window, says the first 150-qubit stage arrives late 2026; the 300-qubit system is still set for 2027.

Promise: vttresearch.com (partner release, May 20, 2025) · Latest evidence: iqm.tech (Sep 9, 2026) · Follow-up: VTT 150 qubits (late 2026) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

PromisedQuantum Computing Inc.Product launch

First customer shipment of the Dirac-3S optimization machine in November 2026.

Promise: quantumcomputinginc.com (press release, Oct 1, 2026) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

PromisedD-Wave QuantumRoadmap milestone

Gate-model roadmap 2026 step: deliver a 17-physical-qubit dual-rail system with logical error rates 2x lower than physical.

Pending; repeated in Q2 2026 results (Aug 6).

Promise: dwavequantum.com (press release, Jun 1, 2026) · Latest evidence: dwavequantum.com · Checked: Oct 17, 2026

PromisedD-Wave QuantumSystem delivery

Begin deployment of the $20M Advantage2 system sold to Florida Atlantic University by the end of 2026.

Promise: sec.gov (filing, Feb 26, 2026) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

PromisedIBMRoadmap milestoneDisputed

First cases of verified quantum advantage will be confirmed by the wider community by the end of 2026.

Disputed. IBM and the University of Chicago announced an advantage result on Jul 30, 2026, with circuits and results on the open Quantum Advantage Tracker. An August 2026 paper reports a classical simulation of that circuit in 37 minutes on 256 GPUs.

Promise: newsroom.ibm.com (press release, Nov 12, 2025) · Latest evidence: newsroom.ibm.com (Jul 30, 2026) · Advantage claim: arxiv.org (preprint; circuits and results in the open Quantum Advantage Tracker) · Classical rebuttal: arxiv.org (Aug 2026) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

MeasuredIBMRoadmap milestoneCompany-reported

Real-time decoding of qLDPC error-correction codes, scheduled for 2026.

Delivered November 12, 2025. On time. IBM reported decoding in under 480 ns on Nov 12, 2025, which it called a full year ahead of schedule. Underlying paper not reviewed by us.

Promise: ibm.com (company blog, Jun 10, 2025) · Delivery: newsroom.ibm.com (Nov 12, 2025) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

PromisedIBMRoadmap milestone

Kookaburra in 2026: the first processor module that stores information in qLDPC memory and processes it with an attached logical processing unit.

No public demonstration found as of Oct 20, 2026. IBM's developer conference (Nov 11 to 13, 2026) is the next checkpoint.

Promise: ibm.com (company blog, Jun 10, 2025) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

PromisedIBMQubit count

Nighthawk with up to three 120-qubit modules (360 qubits) in 2026.

IBM's Aug 31, 2026 Nighthawk r2 post covers the gate count; the multi-module part is not confirmed as of Oct 20, 2026.

Promise: ibm.com (roadmap, Mar 2026) · Latest evidence: ibm.com · Checked: Oct 17, 2026

MeasuredIBMRoadmap milestoneCompany-reported

Nighthawk iterations to run circuits with up to 7,500 two-qubit gates by the end of 2026.

Delivered August 31, 2026. On time. IBM said Nighthawk r2 runs accurate circuits of 7,500+ gates (Aug 31, 2026). Later steps: 10,000 gates in 2027, 15,000 in 2028.

Promise: newsroom.ibm.com (press release, Nov 12, 2025) · Delivery: ibm.com (Aug 31, 2026) · Checked: Oct 17, 2026

PromisedIQM Quantum ComputersFinancial guidance

FY2026 revenue of EUR 42M to 47M and new order intake of EUR 65M to 75M.

First-half revenue was EUR 8.9M. IQM states the outlook depends on delivery and customer acceptance of its first 150-qubit system.

Promise: sec.gov (filing, Aug 4, 2026) · Checked: Oct 7, 2026

PromisedIQM Quantum ComputersProduct launch

First Halocene error-correction system commercially available by the end of 2026: 150 qubits, 99.7% two-qubit fidelity target, research on up to five logical qubits.

Promise: iqm.tech (press release, Nov 13, 2025) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

PromisedIQM Quantum ComputersSystem delivery

150-qubit second stage of the Euro-Q-Exa system at LRZ by the end of 2026.

Promise: iqm.tech (press release, Oct 16, 2024) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

PromisedIQM Quantum ComputersSystem delivery

First 150-qubit stage of the VTT system arriving late 2026.

Promise: iqm.tech (company blog, Sep 9, 2026) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

PromisedInfleqtionQubit count

Rest of the 2026 roadmap column: 4,000 physical qubits, 99.90% gate performance and a hardware error-correction milestone.

No public result yet for the qubit-count and gate targets as of the calendar review.

Promise: infleqtion.com (roadmap, Sep 2025) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

MeasuredInfleqtionRoadmap milestoneCompany-reported

30+ logical qubits in 2026 (September 2025 roadmap).

Delivered September 24, 2026. On time. Infleqtion reported 30 entangled logical qubits from 80 physical qubits on Sqale (Sep 24, 2026). It lists going 'beyond post-selection' as a next priority.

Promise: infleqtion.com (roadmap, Sep 2025) · Delivery: ir.infleqtion.com (Sep 24, 2026) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

PromisedInfleqtionFinancial guidance

FY2026 revenue of about $45.1M (corrected outlook).

First-half 2026 revenue was $23.4M. The Aug 17 correction reflected revenue timing, per the company filing.

Promise: ir.infleqtion.com (filing, Aug 17, 2026) · Checked: Oct 7, 2026

PromisedIonQFidelity or error target

2026 roadmap generation: 100-256+ physical qubits, 99.99% physical fidelity, 12 logical qubits, <1e-7 logical error.

256-qubit Superion announced (deliveries 2027); 99.99% shown on a two-ion test system; 12 logical qubits not shown publicly as far as we found.

Promise: ionq.com (roadmap, Oct 17, 2026) · Latest evidence: arxiv.org · Checked: Oct 17, 2026

PromisedIonQFinancial guidance

FY2026 revenue guidance raised to $450M-$460M (from $280M-$290M), including SkyWater from July 31, 2026.

Guidance includes the acquired foundry business; quantum-only revenue not separated here.

Promise: investors.ionq.com (press release, Sep 8, 2026) · Checked: Oct 17, 2026

PromisedIonQRoadmap milestone

Superion 256 integrated-system validation in Q3 to Q4 2026.

Promise: s28.q4cdn.com (filing, Aug 5, 2026) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

ChangedPasqalQubit count

Roadmap pointing to 10,000 qubits in 2026 with a scalable logical-qubit architecture.

Changed June 12, 2025 to 10,000 qubits by 2028. The June 2025 roadmap moved 10,000 qubits to 2028, before the original deadline. A 1,024-atom register has been reported; 10,000 has not.

Promise: pasqal.com (press release, Mar 12, 2024) · Revision: pasqal.com (Jun 12, 2025) · Follow-up: 10,000 qubits (2028) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

PromisedQuantinuumFinancial guidance

FY2026 revenue of $28M to $32M.

First-half 2026 revenue was $13.2M (41% to 47% of the guided range).

Promise: ir.quantinuum.com (earnings release, Aug 11, 2026) · Checked: Oct 7, 2026

PromisedQuantum Computing Inc.Product launch

2026 product targets: wafer-scale thin-film lithium niobate process development and a field-deployable compact vibrometer.

Promise: sec.gov (filing, Oct 2026) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

PromisedQuantum Computing Inc.System delivery

Deliver five NeuraWave photonic reservoir-computing systems to Planck Dynamics during 2026.

Promise: quantumcomputinginc.com (press release, Jun 18, 2026) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

PromisedRigetti ComputingFidelity or error target

Drive Cepheus-1-108Q to ~99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity later in 2026 (from ~99.1% at ~60 ns).

Currently ~99.1% median 2Q (Q2 2026 release).

Promise: investors.rigetti.com (press release, Aug 6, 2026) · Latest evidence: sec.gov · Checked: Oct 17, 2026

PromisedRigetti ComputingSystem delivery

Deploy a 108-qubit on-premises system at C-DAC in India in the second half of 2026.

Promise: sec.gov (filing, Aug 6, 2026) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

PromisedRigetti ComputingDisclosure

Publish an updated technology roadmap, with milestones and timing, later in 2026.

Promise: sec.gov (filing, Apr 7, 2026) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

PromisedXanadu Quantum TechnologiesFidelity or error target

Key optical-loss indicator at 24.1x by 2026, on a path to 1.0x by 2030.

Promise: investors.xanadu.ai (press release, Aug 31, 2026) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

PromisedQuantum Computing Inc.Product launch

Commercial authentication product for quantum key distribution endpoints in early 2027.

Promise: sec.gov (filing, Oct 2026) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

PromisedD-Wave QuantumRoadmap milestone

Complete a 49-physical-qubit dual-rail gate-model system in 2027, with an expected 20x error reduction.

Promise: dwavequantum.com (press release, Jun 1, 2026) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

PromisedIBMRoadmap milestone

Cockatoo in 2027: demonstrate entanglement between modules using the universal adapter.

Promise: ibm.com (company blog, Jun 10, 2025) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

PromisedIQM Quantum ComputersSystem delivery

Deliver the 300-qubit VTT system in late 2027.

Promise: vttresearch.com (partner release, May 20, 2025) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

PromisedInfleqtionSystem delivery

Deliver a fault-tolerant neutral-atom system in Illinois in 2027, with more than 50 logical qubits at first and a path to 100.

Promise: ir.infleqtion.com (press release, Jul 22, 2026) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

PromisedIonQQubit count

2027 roadmap generation: 10,000 physical qubits, 99.99% fidelity, 800 logical qubits.

Promise; ~40x more physical qubits than Superion 256.

Promise: ionq.com (roadmap, Oct 17, 2026) · Checked: Oct 17, 2026

PromisedIonQSystem delivery

Install a Superion system at Florida International University in late 2027, after FIU's data center is complete.

Promise: ionq.com (press release, Sep 22, 2026) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

PromisedIonQSystem delivery

Install a Superion system at NVIDIA's accelerated quantum research center in 2027.

Promise: ionq.com (press release, Sep 23, 2026) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

PromisedIonQProduct launch

Superion 256 (sixth generation, 256 physical qubits, QPUs fabricated at SkyWater): orders open, initial customer deliveries scheduled for 2027.

No full-system benchmark published at launch.

Promise: investors.ionq.com (press release, Sep 8, 2026) · Latest evidence: ionq.com · Checked: Oct 17, 2026

PromisedPasqalProduct launch

Vela, Pasqal's first product aimed at quantum advantage (200+ physical qubits), and about 20 logical qubits in 2027.

Promise: pasqal.com (press release, Jun 12, 2025) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

PromisedQuantinuumProduct launch

Sol in 2027: first commercially available 2D-grid system, hundreds of physical qubits, two-qubit gate error <2e-4, ~2x faster than Helios.

Q2 2026: trap chip back from fabrication, in product validation.

Promise: quantinuum.com (company blog, Sep 10, 2024) · Latest evidence: quantinuum.com · Checked: Oct 17, 2026

PromisedXanadu Quantum TechnologiesRoadmap milestone

Build the Qubit Factory in 2026 to 2027.

Promise: investors.xanadu.ai (press release, Aug 31, 2026) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

PromisedInfleqtionRoadmap milestone

Target of 100 logical qubits in 2028 and 1,000 by 2030 on Sqale.

Promise; also on Sept 2025 roadmap PDF.

Promise: ir.infleqtion.com (press release, Sep 24, 2026) · Latest evidence: infleqtion.com · Checked: Oct 17, 2026

PromisedIonQQubit count

2028 roadmap step: 20,000 physical qubits and 1,600 logical qubits.

Promise: ionq.com (roadmap, Oct 17, 2026) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

PromisedPasqalQubit count

Reach 10,000 physical qubits by 2028.

Investor materials also frame 10,000+ physical qubits by 2029.

Promise: sec.gov (filing, Sep 9, 2026) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

PromisedRigetti ComputingFidelity or error target

Path to ~1,000 qubits at ~99.9% two-qubit fidelity with <50 ns gates over roughly three years, which Rigetti says is needed for quantum advantage.

'Roughly three years' from Aug 2026; date is our approximation.

Promise: sec.gov (filing, Aug 6, 2026) · Checked: Oct 17, 2026

PromisedD-Wave QuantumQubit count

Advantage3 annealer via multi-chip packaging: 20,000-qubit system available in 2029, ultimately 100,000 qubits by 2031.

Promise; new I/O prototype design announced.

Promise: dwavequantum.com (earnings release, Aug 6, 2026) · Checked: Oct 17, 2026

PromisedIBMRoadmap milestone

Starling, a large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computer with 200 logical qubits running 100 million gates, to be delivered in 2029 at a new Poughkeepsie, NY data center.

Date unchanged since the December 2023 roadmap. A 2028 proof of concept is to demonstrate magic-state injection across modules.

Promise: newsroom.ibm.com (press release, Jun 10, 2025) · Latest evidence: ibm.com · Checked: Oct 17, 2026

PromisedMicrosoftRoadmap milestone

A scalable quantum computer that is commercially valuable by 2029.

Announced with the Majorana 2 chip, which Microsoft says has qubit lifetimes averaging 20 seconds.

Promise: news.microsoft.com (company news, Jun 2, 2026) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

PromisedPasqalRoadmap milestone

Goal of 200+ logical qubits by 2029.

Promise; 1,024-atom defect-free register reported H1 2026.

Promise: pasqal.com (roadmap, Oct 17, 2026) · Checked: Oct 17, 2026

PromisedQuantinuumRoadmap milestone

Apollo by 2029: universal, fully fault-tolerant system (thousands of physical qubits, hundreds of logical qubits).

Q2 2026 release: 'Apollo remains on schedule for 2029'.

Promise: quantinuum.com (press release, Sep 10, 2024) · Latest evidence: quantinuum.com · Checked: Oct 17, 2026

ChangedXanadu Quantum TechnologiesQubit count

A fault-tolerant computer with up to 100,000 physical qubits and up to 1,000 logical qubits by 2029.

Changed August 31, 2026 to up to 200 logical by 2029, 1,000+ by 2031. The Aug 31, 2026 roadmap targets up to 200 logical qubits by 2029, up to 500 by 2030 and 1,000+ by 2031.

Promise: investors.xanadu.ai (press release, Nov 3, 2025) · Revision: investors.xanadu.ai (Aug 31, 2026) · Follow-up: 200 logical by 2029 · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

PromisedXanadu Quantum TechnologiesQubit count

Up to 200 logical qubits by 2029 (then up to 500 by 2030 and 1,000+ by 2031).

Promise: investors.xanadu.ai (press release, Aug 31, 2026) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

PromisedXanadu Quantum TechnologiesRoadmap milestone

Fault-tolerance milestone in 2028 to 2029.

Promise: investors.xanadu.ai (press release, Aug 31, 2026) · Checked: Oct 20, 2026

PromisedIonQQubit count

2030 roadmap target: 2,000,000 physical qubits and 80,000 logical qubits (<1e-12 logical error); 2029 step: 200,000 physical / 8,000 logical.

Promise. Jan 2026 SkyWater release said functional testing of 200,000-qubit QPUs is expected in 2028.

Promise: ionq.com (roadmap, Oct 17, 2026) · Latest evidence: investors.ionq.com · Checked: Oct 17, 2026

PromisedD-Wave QuantumRoadmap milestone

Gate-model roadmap end point: a 100-logical-qubit system performing >1 million operations by 2032 (10 logical qubits in 2030; 49 qubits 2027; 181 qubits 2028).

Long-dated promise; targets Lambda of 10.

Promise: dwavequantum.com (press release, Jun 1, 2026) · Checked: Oct 17, 2026

PromisedIBMRoadmap milestone

Blue Jay by 2033 or later: 1 billion quantum operations over 2,000 logical qubits.

'2033+' on IBM's page: open-ended.

Promise: newsroom.ibm.com (press release, Jun 10, 2025) · Latest evidence: ibm.com · Checked: Oct 20, 2026