Scorecard
IBM quantum scorecard: Q3 2026
Earnings evidence scorecard · data as of October 22, 2026 · Q3 data from IBM's report of October 21, 2026
IBM's Q3 2026 report moved the quantum roadmap, not the quantum money: the Nighthawk 7,500-gate promise is now assessed as met, and IBM gave a count of 16 enterprise engagements signed in 2026. It gave no new signings dollar figure and no Kookaburra update, so of the four promises due by the end of 2026, two remain open and one is partly met.
- Quantum backlog
- Quarterly quantum bookings
- Prior-quarter quantum revenue
- Quarterly quantum revenue
- Year-ago quarterly quantum revenue
IBM Quantum Day, December 10, 2026 (announced in IBM's Q3 remarks).
What IBM can be held to
IBM does not report quantum as a segment and does not disclose quantum revenue (metric status: Not disclosed). What it does disclose: cumulative quantum signings, an investment plan, and dated roadmap promises. This page scores those.
Q3 2026: what changed
- Quantum signings statement
- No new cumulative dollar figure. New count: 16 enterprise engagements signed in 2026 (prepared remarks).
- Quantum signings value
- Not disclosed (last: more than $1.1 billion since 2017, June 2, 2026)
- Quantum mentions in the earnings release
- 0 in 8-K Ex. 99.1; quantum covered in prepared remarks and one chart bullet
- Roadmap updates
- Nighthawk r2: 7,500 gates, 100,000 circuits/sec, up to 19x vs prior gen; first modular cryogenic systems connected; Poughkeepsie facility progressing; DARPA QBI Stage C selection; no Kookaburra update; Quantum Day Dec 10, 2026
- Named quantum clients and partners
- AT&T; General Motors; University of Chicago; Algorithmiq; Qedma; DARPA (QBI Stage C); U.S. Department of Commerce (Anderon)
- Anderon foundry status
- CHIPS award of up to $1B finalized (Sept 16); listed as closed in Q3 remarks and charts
- Quantum-advantage claims referenced
- IBM: three independent quantum-advantage demonstrations on IBM hardware in July 2026 (company description; community confirmation not established)
Money IBM has disclosed
Signings are contracts signed, not revenue, and IBM gives no quarterly figure.
| Date | Metric | Value | Kind | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2025 | Cumulative quantum signings | approaching $1 billion (1Q17 to 4Q24) | signings since inception (not revenue) | IBM says (non-SEC source) | IBM 2025 Investor Day charts (inception defined as 1Q17-4Q24) |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Cumulative quantum contracts signed | more than $1.1 billion since 2017 | signings since inception (not revenue) | IBM says (non-SEC source) | IBM press release, June 2, 2026 |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Planned quantum investment | more than $10 billion over five years (R&D, capex, manufacturing, ecosystem, M&A) | investment plan | final (SEC) | Q2 2026 earnings release (8-K Ex. 99.1) |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Deployed quantum systems | over 90 systems (cloud and on-site) | fleet size (company-reported) | IBM says (non-SEC source) | IBM press release, June 2, 2026 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Enterprise quantum engagements signed in 2026 | 16 (year to date; count only, no dollar value given) | engagement count (not revenue or signings value) | IBM says (non-SEC source) | IBM 3Q26 earnings prepared remarks, October 21, 2026 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Nighthawk r2 throughput and claimed cost gap | 7,500 gates; 100,000 circuits per second; up to 19x over prior generation; IBM claims ~$100 workloads could cost up to $10M on slower modalities | company performance claim (no independent check reviewed) | IBM says (non-SEC source) | IBM 3Q26 earnings prepared remarks, October 21, 2026 |
Roadmap promises
Statuses are TQINB assessments against IBM's own wording and dates. "Pending" means the date has not passed or no evidence has appeared yet.
Summary: 3 kept, 1 partly kept, 3 pending (of 7; TQINB assessment).
| ID | Promise (IBM's words in the quote) | Made | Due | Status (TQINB assessment) | Outcome | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBM-R1 | Nighthawk (120 qubits, 218 tunable couplers) delivered to users by end of 2025 | Nov 12, 2025 | Dec 31, 2025 | kept (TQINB assessment) | IBM says it deployed its first 120-qubit Nighthawk-based system for clients in December 2025 (company statement; TQINB tracker notes it was an early-access preview). | promise · evidence |
| IBM-R2 | Loon experimental processor in 2025 (qLDPC architecture components) | Jun 10, 2025 | Dec 31, 2025 | kept (TQINB assessment) | Announced Nov 12, 2025 as an experimental processor (company statement; no independent performance data reviewed). | promise · evidence |
| IBM-R3 | Kookaburra in 2026: first modular processor to store and process encoded information (single Starling module: logical processing unit plus quantum memory) | Jun 10, 2025 | Dec 31, 2026 | pending | No IBM primary-source announcement of a Kookaburra demonstration found as of October 22, 2026; Kookaburra is not mentioned in the Q3 2026 release, prepared remarks or charts. Some third-party web articles claim one; they are not used. Watch IBM Quantum Day (December 10, 2026). | promise · evidence |
| IBM-R4 | Nighthawk iterations to run up to 7,500 two-qubit gates by end of 2026 | Nov 12, 2025 | Dec 31, 2026 | kept (TQINB assessment) | IBM reports that Nighthawk r2 (120 programmable qubits, one processor) demonstrated accurate observable estimation on circuits with more than 7,500 gates, which IBM calls a major 2026 roadmap milestone (IBM blog, Aug 31, 2026). Company-reported; no independent replication reviewed. Restated in Q3 2026 prepared remarks (Oct 21): Nighthawk r2 'delivering 7,500 gates'. | promise · evidence |
| IBM-R5 | First cases of verified quantum advantage confirmed by the wider community by end of 2026 | Nov 12, 2025 | Dec 31, 2026 | pending | Pending against IBM's own bar ('confirmed by the wider community'). On July 30, 2026, IBM and the University of Chicago announced a demonstration that IBM says 'achieves the fundamental criteria for quantum advantage' (70 logical qubits, doped Clifford sampling; paper arXiv:2607.25941) and posted the circuits to the open Quantum Advantage Tracker. The paper itself notes simulation time for this instance may change with better classical methods. No community-accepted confirmation found as of October 23, 2026: the Quantum Advantage Tracker (quantum-advantage-tracker.github.io) still lists IBM-related entries only as active candidates needing further benchmarking. Q3 2026 prepared remarks (Oct 21) say three independent advantage demonstrations were achieved on IBM hardware in July (University of Chicago, Algorithmiq, Qedma); this is IBM's own description, not the community confirmation IBM set as the bar, so status stays pending. | promise · evidence |
| IBM-R6 | Real-time qLDPC error-correction decoding (roadmap: decoder prototype in 2026) | Jun 10, 2025 | Dec 31, 2026 | partly kept (TQINB assessment) | IBM reported decoding in under 480 ns in Nov 2025 and described it as ahead of schedule (company-reported; not yet shown inside a live error-correction experiment). | promise |
| IBM-R7 | Starling: large-scale fault-tolerant computer (200 logical qubits, 100M operations) delivered by 2029 in Poughkeepsie, NY | Jun 10, 2025 | Dec 31, 2029 | pending | Reaffirmed in the July 2026 investor letter ('on track'). Q3 2026 remarks report the first modular cryogenic systems connected and progress on the 300,000 sq ft Poughkeepsie facility (company-reported). | promise · evidence |
Clients, partners and programs
Evidence type says what the source says it is. A partnership, MOU or program membership is not a revenue contract.
| Name | Relationship | Evidence type | Date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Clinic and RIKEN | On-site IBM systems; joint work modeling a 12,635-atom protein | deployment / research collaboration | Jun 2, 2026 | source |
| Cisco | Quantum networking collaboration | partnership | Jan 28, 2026 | source |
| U.S. DOE Genesis Mission and DARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative | Government program participation | government program | Jan 28, 2026 | source |
| IBM Quantum Network (340+ organizations) | Network members across financial services, healthcare, materials, academia and government | network membership (company-reported count) | Jun 2, 2026 | source |
| AT&T and General Motors | Named among 2026 enterprise quantum engagements; now IBM Quantum Network members (IBM statement; contract terms not disclosed) | enterprise engagement (company-reported) | Oct 21, 2026 | source |
| University of Chicago, Algorithmiq and Qedma | IBM says three independent quantum-advantage demonstrations were run on IBM hardware with them in July 2026 | research collaboration (company-reported) | Oct 21, 2026 | source |
Anderon (quantum wafer foundry)
Not applicable (large-cap; quantum is not separately financed). Anderon, an IBM subsidiary: letter of intent with the U.S. Department of Commerce announced May 21, 2026 ($1B proposed CHIPS incentive plus $1B IBM cash); the CHIPS R&D award of up to $1B was finalized on Sept 16, 2026, per IBM and the Department of Commerce. Disbursement and milestone terms were not published. (TQINB summary)
Q3: CHIPS award of up to $1B finalized (Sept 16); listed as closed in Q3 remarks and charts
Not disclosed by IBM
- Quantum backlog
- Quarterly quantum bookings
- Prior-quarter quantum revenue
- Quarterly quantum revenue
- Year-ago quarterly quantum revenue
Next checkpoint
IBM Quantum Day, December 10, 2026 (announced in IBM's Q3 remarks). The scorecard is updated afterward, and when IBM reports Q4.
How to read this page
- Final values come from SEC filings and were machine-checked at the source. IBM says marks company statements from outside SEC filings. TQINB assessment marks a status call made by The Quantum Investor's Notebook.
- Each promise links the source where IBM made it and, where one exists, the evidence for its status.
- For educational and discussion purposes only. This is not financial or investment advice.
Sources
- sec.gov/…/ibm-20261021xex991.htm
- ibm.com/…/17f55bddaac4eb80
- newsroom.ibm.com/2025-11-12-ibm-delivers-new-quantum-processors,-software,-and-algorithm-breakthroughs-on-path-to-advantage-and-fault-tolerance
- newsroom.ibm.com/2025-06-10-IBM-Sets-the-Course-to-Build-Worlds-First-Large-Scale,-Fault-Tolerant-Quantum-Computer-at-New-IBM-Quantum-Data-Center
- ibm.com/…/1550f7eea8c0ded4
- ibm.com/…/2026
- ibm.com/…/nighthawk-r2
- newsroom.ibm.com/2026-07-30-ibm-and-the-university-of-chicago-demonstrate-quantum-advantage,-establishing-trusted-quantum-computation-on-logical-circuits
- sec.gov/…/ibm-20260714xex991.htm
- ibm.com/…/11ed328699d6e994
- newsroom.ibm.com/2026-06-02-ibm-commits-more-than-10-billion-to-quantum-computing,-funding-its-roadmap-from-todays-leading-systems-to-the-worlds-first-fault-tolerant-quantum-computers
- sec.gov/…/ibm-20260722xex991.htm
- ibm.com/…/17f55bddaac4eb7e