{ "name": "TQINB Roadmap Promise Tracker", "as_of": "2026-10-20", "disclaimer": "Educational record of public company statements. Not financial or investment advice. Status reflects public sources as of the date checked.", "status_definitions": { "measured": "delivered, with a dated public source showing it", "promised": "the deadline has not arrived yet", "missed": "the deadline passed without delivery", "changed": "the company revised or re-dated the promise before resolving it" }, "advantage_rule": "A quantum advantage claim counts as Measured only when it is published (a peer-reviewed paper or a public dataset) and no credible classical rebuttal is outstanding. If a rebuttal is outstanding, the row stays Promised and is marked disputed, with links to both sides. Otherwise it stays Promised until it is verified.", "counts": { "measured": 13, "promised": 49, "missed": 2, "changed": 2 }, "total": 66, "rows": [ { "id": "IBM-EAGLE-2021", "label": "Eagle 127 qubits", "company": "IBM", "ticker": "IBM", "modality": "Superconducting", "category": "qubit_count", "promise": "Debut the 127-qubit Eagle processor in 2021.", "status": "measured", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "2021", "due_date": "2021-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2021, "source_url": "https://research.ibm.com/blog/ibm-quantum-roadmap", "source_kind": "roadmap", "source_date": "2020-09-15", "delivered_on": "2021-11-16", "delivered_label": null, "on_time": true, "evidence_url": "https://newsroom.ibm.com/2021-11-16-IBM-Unveils-Breakthrough-127-Qubit-Quantum-Processor", "evidence_date": "2021-11-16", "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "Unveiled Nov 16, 2021 at IBM Quantum Summit 2021.", "notes": null, "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [ "scorecard:1" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "IBM-OSPREY-2022", "label": "Osprey 433 qubits", "company": "IBM", "ticker": "IBM", "modality": "Superconducting", "category": "qubit_count", "promise": "Deliver the 433-qubit Osprey processor in 2022.", "status": "measured", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "2022", "due_date": "2022-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2022, "source_url": "https://research.ibm.com/blog/ibm-quantum-roadmap", "source_kind": "roadmap", "source_date": "2020-09-15", "delivered_on": "2022-11-09", "delivered_label": null, "on_time": true, "evidence_url": "https://newsroom.ibm.com/2022-11-09-IBM-Unveils-400-Qubit-Plus-Quantum-Processor-and-Next-Generation-IBM-Quantum-System-Two", "evidence_date": "2022-11-09", "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "Unveiled Nov 9, 2022 at IBM Quantum Summit 2022.", "notes": null, "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [ "scorecard:2" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "IBM-CONDOR-2023", "label": "Condor 1,121 qubits", "company": "IBM", "ticker": "IBM", "modality": "Superconducting", "category": "qubit_count", "promise": "Debut the 1,121-qubit Condor processor in 2023.", "status": "measured", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "2023", "due_date": "2023-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2023, "source_url": "https://research.ibm.com/blog/ibm-quantum-roadmap", "source_kind": "roadmap", "source_date": "2020-09-15", "delivered_on": "2023-12-04", "delivered_label": null, "on_time": true, "evidence_url": "https://www.ibm.com/quantum/blog/quantum-roadmap-2033", "evidence_date": "2023-12-04", "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "Introduced Dec 4, 2023. IBM said its performance was comparable to the 433-qubit Osprey and made the 133-qubit Heron the base of its roadmap.", "notes": "In 2020 IBM called Condor an inflection point for error correction; by 2023 it was described as an innovation milestone. The date was kept; the role changed.", "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [ "scorecard:3" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "IBM-HERON-5K-2024", "label": "Heron 5,000 gates", "company": "IBM", "ticker": "IBM", "modality": "Superconducting", "category": "milestone", "promise": "Heron to reach 5,000 two-qubit gates in 2024.", "status": "measured", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "2024", "due_date": "2024-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2024, "source_url": "https://www.ibm.com/quantum/blog/quantum-roadmap-2033", "source_kind": "roadmap", "source_date": "2023-12-04", "delivered_on": "2024-11-13", "delivered_label": null, "on_time": true, "evidence_url": "https://newsroom.ibm.com/2024-11-13-ibm-launches-its-most-advanced-quantum-computers,-fueling-new-scientific-value-and-progress-towards-quantum-advantage", "evidence_date": "2024-11-13", "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "IBM said Heron with Qiskit runs certain classes of circuits with up to 5,000 two-qubit gates (Nov 13, 2024).", "notes": null, "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [ "scorecard:4" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "IONQ-AQ35-2024", "label": "#AQ 35", "company": "IonQ", "ticker": "IONQ", "modality": "Trapped ion", "category": "milestone", "promise": "Reach 35 algorithmic qubits (#AQ 35), IonQ's 2024 technical performance milestone.", "status": "measured", "verification": "company_reported", "due_label": "2024", "due_date": "2024-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2024, "source_url": "https://investors.ionq.com/news/news-details/2024/IonQ-Achieves-Technical-Milestone-One-Year-Ahead-of-Schedule/default.aspx", "source_kind": "press release", "source_date": "2024-01-25", "delivered_on": "2024-01-25", "delivered_label": null, "on_time": true, "evidence_url": "https://investors.ionq.com/news/news-details/2024/IonQ-Achieves-Technical-Milestone-One-Year-Ahead-of-Schedule/default.aspx", "evidence_date": "2024-01-25", "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "IonQ reported #AQ 35 on Forte on Jan 25, 2024. #AQ is IonQ's own benchmark.", "notes": "The target year is as restated by IonQ in the same release; the original 2021 roadmap document is not linked here.", "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [], "origin": "added", "provenance": "Added 2026-10-20 from IonQ IR release (fetched 2026-10-20); lead from IONQ roadmap record AQ3." }, { "id": "RGTI-36Q-2025", "label": "36 qubits at 99.5%", "company": "Rigetti Computing", "ticker": "RGTI", "modality": "Superconducting", "category": "fidelity", "promise": "By mid-2025, release a 36-qubit system (four 9-qubit chips) with a targeted 99.5% median two-qubit fidelity.", "status": "measured", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "mid-2025", "due_date": "2025-06-30", "due_precision": "approx", "due_year": 2025, "source_url": "https://investors.rigetti.com/news-releases/news-release-details/rigetti-computing-reports-third-quarter-2024-financial-results", "source_kind": "earnings release", "source_date": "2024-11-12", "delivered_on": "2025-08-12", "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1838359/000155837025011219/rgti-20250812xex99d1.htm", "evidence_date": "2025-08-12", "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "99.5% median two-qubit fidelity on the 36-qubit system announced Jul 16, 2025 (8-K); Cepheus-1-36Q generally available Aug 12, 2025.", "notes": "On-time not scored: 'mid-year' has no exact end date. Fidelity milestone 8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1838359/000110465925068842/tm2521200d1_8k.htm", "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [], "origin": "added", "provenance": "Added 2026-10-20: promise from Rigetti Q3 2024 release (fetched 2026-10-20); delivery from Rigetti Q2 2025 8-K Ex. 99.1 and Jul 18, 2025 8-K (found via web search 2026-10-20); lead from RGTI roadmap record H5." }, { "id": "IBM-LOON-2025", "label": "Loon c-couplers", "company": "IBM", "ticker": "IBM", "modality": "Superconducting", "category": "milestone", "promise": "Loon processor in 2025, with c-couplers for long-range on-chip connections (fault-tolerance components).", "status": "measured", "verification": "company_reported", "due_label": "2025", "due_date": "2025-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2025, "source_url": "https://www.ibm.com/quantum/blog/large-scale-ftqc", "source_kind": "company blog", "source_date": "2025-06-10", "delivered_on": "2025-11-12", "delivered_label": null, "on_time": true, "evidence_url": "https://newsroom.ibm.com/2025-11-12-ibm-delivers-new-quantum-processors,-software,-and-algorithm-breakthroughs-on-path-to-advantage-and-fault-tolerance", "evidence_date": "2025-11-12", "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "Announced Nov 12, 2025 as an experimental processor; IBM has not stated when outside users get access.", "notes": null, "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [ "scorecard:6" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "IBM-NIGHTHAWK-2025", "label": "Nighthawk to users", "company": "IBM", "ticker": "IBM", "modality": "Superconducting", "category": "product_launch", "promise": "Nighthawk (120 qubits, 218 tunable couplers) to be delivered to IBM users by the end of 2025.", "status": "measured", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "2025", "due_date": "2025-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2025, "source_url": "https://newsroom.ibm.com/2025-11-12-ibm-delivers-new-quantum-processors,-software,-and-algorithm-breakthroughs-on-path-to-advantage-and-fault-tolerance", "source_kind": "press release", "source_date": "2025-11-12", "delivered_on": "2025-12-31", "delivered_label": "December 2025", "on_time": true, "evidence_url": "https://www.ibm.com/quantum/blog/whats-new-q4-2025", "evidence_date": "2025-12-31", "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "ibm_miami (first Nighthawk) made available as an exploratory early-access preview in Dec 2025.", "notes": null, "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-17", "refs": [ "claims:IBM-20251112-02" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "IONQ-AQ64-2025", "label": "#AQ 64", "company": "IonQ", "ticker": "IONQ", "modality": "Trapped ion", "category": "milestone", "promise": "Reach 64 algorithmic qubits (#AQ 64), IonQ's 2025 performance target.", "status": "measured", "verification": "company_reported", "due_label": "2025", "due_date": "2025-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2025, "source_url": "https://investors.ionq.com/news/news-details/2025/IonQ-Achieves-Record-Breaking-Quantum-Performance-Milestone-of-AQ-64/", "source_kind": "press release", "source_date": "2025-09-25", "delivered_on": "2025-09-25", "delivered_label": null, "on_time": true, "evidence_url": "https://www.ionq.com/blog/ionq-hits-aq-64-milestone-ahead-of-schedule-and-sets-its-sights-even-higher", "evidence_date": "2025-10-13", "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "IonQ reported #AQ 64 on a Tempo system on Sep 25, 2025, three months before the 2025 target. IonQ then moved to physical, logical and application metrics.", "notes": "Target year as restated by IonQ; original 2021 roadmap document not linked here.", "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [], "origin": "added", "provenance": "Added 2026-10-20 from IonQ IR release and IonQ blog (both fetched 2026-10-20); lead from IONQ roadmap record AQ4." }, { "id": "QNT-HELIOS-2025", "label": "Helios launch", "company": "Quantinuum", "ticker": "QNT", "modality": "Trapped ion", "category": "product_launch", "promise": "Helios to launch in 2025 as the next system on the accelerated roadmap.", "status": "measured", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "2025", "due_date": "2025-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2025, "source_url": "https://www.quantinuum.com/press-releases/quantinuum-unveils-accelerated-roadmap-to-achieve-universal-fault-tolerant-quantum-computing-by-2030", "source_kind": "press release", "source_date": "2024-09-10", "delivered_on": "2025-11-05", "delivered_label": null, "on_time": true, "evidence_url": "https://www.quantinuum.com/press-releases/quantinuum-announces-commercial-launch-of-new-helios-quantum-computer-that-offers-unprecedented-accuracy-to-enable-generative-quantum-ai-genqai", "evidence_date": "2025-11-05", "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "Commercially launched Nov 5, 2025 (98 physical qubits).", "notes": null, "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-17", "refs": [ "claims:QNT-20240910-01" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "RGTI-100Q-2025", "label": "100+ qubits at 99.5%", "company": "Rigetti Computing", "ticker": "RGTI", "modality": "Superconducting", "category": "fidelity", "promise": "By the end of 2025, release a system with over 100 qubits at a targeted 99.5% median two-qubit fidelity.", "status": "missed", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "2025", "due_date": "2025-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2025, "source_url": "https://investors.rigetti.com/news-releases/news-release-details/rigetti-computing-reports-third-quarter-2024-financial-results", "source_kind": "earnings release", "source_date": "2024-11-12", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": false, "evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1838359/000110465926091979/rgti-20260806xex99d1.htm", "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": "RGTI-108Q-995-2026", "outcome": "The 108-qubit Cepheus-1 became generally available in April 2026 at about 99.1% median two-qubit fidelity; 99.5% is now targeted for later in 2026.", "notes": "Rigetti reaffirmed the target on Nov 10, 2025 and formally revised the roadmap on Jan 9, 2026, after the deadline.", "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-17", "refs": [ "claims:RGTI-20241112-01" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "PSQL-ADVANTAGE-2026", "label": "Quantum advantage", "company": "Pasqal", "ticker": "PSQL", "modality": "Neutral atom", "category": "milestone", "promise": "Demonstrate quantum advantage on an industry-relevant problem by the end of Q1 2026.", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "Q1 2026", "due_date": "2026-03-31", "due_precision": "quarter", "due_year": 2026, "source_url": "https://www.pasqal.com/technology/roadmap/", "source_kind": "roadmap", "source_date": "2026-10-17", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": "https://www.pasqal.com/newsroom/pasqal-reports-first-half-2026-financial-results/", "evidence_date": "2026-09-24", "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "Pasqal's H1 2026 release says it can deliver quantum advantage today, citing a 256-atom TmMgGaO4 simulation (arXiv preprint, Mar 2026). It stays Promised until the claim is peer-reviewed or released as a public dataset.", "notes": "Advantage rule: the supporting paper is an arXiv preprint (v3) and we found no peer-reviewed version or public dataset as of Oct 20, 2026; no classical rebuttal found either. The June 2025 roadmap release said 'first part of 2026'; the roadmap page says end of Q1 2026. The deadline has passed; under the rule the row stays Promised until verified. The claims tracker row is open too.", "advantage_rule": "unverified", "advantage_claim_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.20372", "advantage_published": "preprint", "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [ "claims:PSQL-20261017-01" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "IQMX-VTT150-MID2026", "label": "VTT 150 qubits (mid-2026)", "company": "IQM Quantum Computers", "ticker": "IQMX", "modality": "Superconducting", "category": "deployment", "promise": "Deliver a 150-qubit superconducting system to VTT in Finland in mid-2026, as the first stage of a 300-qubit system.", "status": "missed", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "mid-2026", "due_date": "2026-06-30", "due_precision": "approx", "due_year": 2026, "source_url": "https://www.vttresearch.com/en/news-and-ideas/iqm-quantum-computers-supply-finland-world-leading-superconducting-300-qubit-quantum", "source_kind": "partner release", "source_date": "2025-05-20", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": false, "evidence_url": "https://iqm.tech/blog/from-5-to-300-qubits-building-europes-largest-quantum-computer/", "evidence_date": "2026-09-09", "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": "IQMX-VTT150-2026", "outcome": "New date: late 2026. IQM's Sep 9, 2026 post, published after the mid-2026 window, says the first 150-qubit stage arrives late 2026; the 300-qubit system is still set for 2027.", "notes": "Scored missed under the house rule: a target re-dated only after its deadline counts as missed. No earlier re-dating notice was found. The late-2026 date is tracked as its own row.", "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [], "origin": "added", "provenance": "Added 2026-10-20: VTT release and IQM blog both fetched 2026-10-20; lead from catalyst event ms-iqmx-vtt150 and IQMX roadmap record." }, { "id": "QUBT-DIRAC3S-2026", "label": "Dirac-3S shipment", "company": "Quantum Computing Inc.", "ticker": "QUBT", "modality": "Photonic", "category": "product_launch", "promise": "First customer shipment of the Dirac-3S optimization machine in November 2026.", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "November 2026", "due_date": "2026-11-30", "due_precision": "month", "due_year": 2026, "source_url": "https://quantumcomputinginc.com/news/press-releases/2026/quantum-computing-inc.-announces-dirac-3s-advancing-speed-scale-and-solutions-for-quantum-optimization", "source_kind": "press release", "source_date": "2026-10-01", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": null, "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": null, "notes": null, "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [ "events:ms-qubt-dirac3s" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "QBTS-DR17-2026", "label": "17-qubit dual-rail", "company": "D-Wave Quantum", "ticker": "QBTS", "modality": "Superconducting (gate model)", "category": "milestone", "promise": "Gate-model roadmap 2026 step: deliver a 17-physical-qubit dual-rail system with logical error rates 2x lower than physical.", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "by end of 2026", "due_date": "2026-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2026, "source_url": "https://www.dwavequantum.com/company/newsroom/press-release/d-wave-charts-a-new-course-to-fault-tolerant-quantum-computing-with-gate-model-roadmap/", "source_kind": "press release", "source_date": "2026-06-01", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": "https://www.dwavequantum.com/company/newsroom/press-release/d-wave-reports-second-quarter-2026-results/", "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "Pending; repeated in Q2 2026 results (Aug 6).", "notes": null, "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-17", "refs": [ "claims:QBTS-20260601-01", "events:ms-qbts-dr17" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "QBTS-FAU-2026", "label": "FAU deployment", "company": "D-Wave Quantum", "ticker": "QBTS", "modality": "Annealing", "category": "deployment", "promise": "Begin deployment of the $20M Advantage2 system sold to Florida Atlantic University by the end of 2026.", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "by end of 2026", "due_date": "2026-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2026, "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1907982/000190798226000022/qbts-20260226xexx991.htm", "source_kind": "filing", "source_date": "2026-02-26", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": null, "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": null, "notes": null, "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [ "events:ms-qbts-fau" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "IBM-ADVANTAGE-2026", "label": "Quantum advantage confirmed", "company": "IBM", "ticker": "IBM", "modality": "Superconducting", "category": "milestone", "promise": "First cases of verified quantum advantage will be confirmed by the wider community by the end of 2026.", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "by end of 2026", "due_date": "2026-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2026, "source_url": "https://newsroom.ibm.com/2025-11-12-ibm-delivers-new-quantum-processors,-software,-and-algorithm-breakthroughs-on-path-to-advantage-and-fault-tolerance", "source_kind": "press release", "source_date": "2025-11-12", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": "https://newsroom.ibm.com/2026-07-30-ibm-and-the-university-of-chicago-demonstrate-quantum-advantage,-establishing-trusted-quantum-computation-on-logical-circuits", "evidence_date": "2026-07-30", "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "Disputed. IBM and the University of Chicago announced an advantage result on Jul 30, 2026, with circuits and results on the open Quantum Advantage Tracker. An August 2026 paper reports a classical simulation of that circuit in 37 minutes on 256 GPUs.", "notes": "Advantage rule: published as a public dataset (Quantum Advantage Tracker) plus an arXiv preprint, but a classical rebuttal is outstanding (arXiv 2608.13110 simulated the 70-qubit, 468 T-gate instance). IBM's preprint v3 (Sep 2, 2026) reports a 64-qubit, 314 T-gate circuit; we found no public settlement of whether that instance is beyond classical reach. The promise itself names confirmation 'by the wider community' by the end of 2026.", "advantage_rule": "disputed", "advantage_claim_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.25941", "advantage_published": "public_dataset", "advantage_rebuttal_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.13110", "advantage_rebuttal_date": "2026-08", "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [ "claims:IBM-20251112-01", "events:ms-ibm-advantage-2026", "scorecard:8" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "IBM-DECODER-2026", "label": "Real-time qLDPC decoding", "company": "IBM", "ticker": "IBM", "modality": "Superconducting", "category": "milestone", "promise": "Real-time decoding of qLDPC error-correction codes, scheduled for 2026.", "status": "measured", "verification": "company_reported", "due_label": "2026", "due_date": "2026-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2026, "source_url": "https://www.ibm.com/quantum/blog/large-scale-ftqc", "source_kind": "company blog", "source_date": "2025-06-10", "delivered_on": "2025-11-12", "delivered_label": null, "on_time": true, "evidence_url": "https://newsroom.ibm.com/2025-11-12-ibm-delivers-new-quantum-processors,-software,-and-algorithm-breakthroughs-on-path-to-advantage-and-fault-tolerance", "evidence_date": "2025-11-12", "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "IBM reported decoding in under 480 ns on Nov 12, 2025, which it called a full year ahead of schedule. Underlying paper not reviewed by us.", "notes": null, "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [ "scorecard:5", "claims:IBM-20251112-04" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "IBM-KOOKABURRA-2026", "label": "Kookaburra module", "company": "IBM", "ticker": "IBM", "modality": "Superconducting", "category": "milestone", "promise": "Kookaburra in 2026: the first processor module that stores information in qLDPC memory and processes it with an attached logical processing unit.", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "2026", "due_date": "2026-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2026, "source_url": "https://www.ibm.com/quantum/blog/large-scale-ftqc", "source_kind": "company blog", "source_date": "2025-06-10", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": null, "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "No public demonstration found as of Oct 20, 2026. IBM's developer conference (Nov 11 to 13, 2026) is the next checkpoint.", "notes": "In the December 2023 roadmap the c-couplers were assigned to Kookaburra; in June 2025 they moved to Loon and Kookaburra became the memory plus LPU module.", "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [ "events:ms-ibm-kookaburra", "claims:IBM-20260301-01", "scorecard:9" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "IBM-NIGHTHAWK-3MOD-2026", "label": "Nighthawk 3 modules", "company": "IBM", "ticker": "IBM", "modality": "Superconducting", "category": "qubit_count", "promise": "Nighthawk with up to three 120-qubit modules (360 qubits) in 2026.", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "2026", "due_date": "2026-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2026, "source_url": "https://www.ibm.com/roadmaps/quantum/2026/", "source_kind": "roadmap", "source_date": "2026-03", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": "https://www.ibm.com/roadmaps/quantum/2026/", "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "IBM's Aug 31, 2026 Nighthawk r2 post covers the gate count; the multi-module part is not confirmed as of Oct 20, 2026.", "notes": "Roadmap page says 'Updated March 2026'; no day given.", "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-17", "refs": [ "claims:IBM-20251112-03", "scorecard:7" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "IBM-NIGHTHAWK-7500-2026", "label": "Nighthawk 7,500 gates", "company": "IBM", "ticker": "IBM", "modality": "Superconducting", "category": "milestone", "promise": "Nighthawk iterations to run circuits with up to 7,500 two-qubit gates by the end of 2026.", "status": "measured", "verification": "company_reported", "due_label": "2026", "due_date": "2026-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2026, "source_url": "https://newsroom.ibm.com/2025-11-12-ibm-delivers-new-quantum-processors,-software,-and-algorithm-breakthroughs-on-path-to-advantage-and-fault-tolerance", "source_kind": "press release", "source_date": "2025-11-12", "delivered_on": "2026-08-31", "delivered_label": null, "on_time": true, "evidence_url": "https://www.ibm.com/quantum/blog/nighthawk-r2", "evidence_date": "2026-08-31", "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "IBM said Nighthawk r2 runs accurate circuits of 7,500+ gates (Aug 31, 2026). Later steps: 10,000 gates in 2027, 15,000 in 2028.", "notes": null, "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-17", "refs": [ "claims:IBM-20251112-03", "scorecard:7" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "IQMX-FY26-OUTLOOK", "label": "FY2026 outlook", "company": "IQM Quantum Computers", "ticker": "IQMX", "modality": "Superconducting", "category": "financial_guidance", "promise": "FY2026 revenue of EUR 42M to 47M and new order intake of EUR 65M to 75M.", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "FY2026", "due_date": "2026-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2026, "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2113060/000119312526331538/iqmx-ex99_3.htm", "source_kind": "filing", "source_date": "2026-08-04", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": null, "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "First-half revenue was EUR 8.9M. IQM states the outlook depends on delivery and customer acceptance of its first 150-qubit system.", "notes": "Public URL taken from the IQMX roadmap record (reviewed 2026-10-07).", "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-07", "refs": [ "events:guide-iqmx-fy26" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "IQMX-HALOCENE-2026", "label": "Halocene 150 qubits", "company": "IQM Quantum Computers", "ticker": "IQMX", "modality": "Superconducting", "category": "product_launch", "promise": "First Halocene error-correction system commercially available by the end of 2026: 150 qubits, 99.7% two-qubit fidelity target, research on up to five logical qubits.", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "by end of 2026", "due_date": "2026-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2026, "source_url": "https://iqm.tech/press-releases/iqm-launches-halocene-a-new-quantum-computer-product-line-for-error-correction/", "source_kind": "press release", "source_date": "2025-11-13", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": null, "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": null, "notes": null, "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [ "events:ms-iqmx-halocene" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "IQMX-LRZ150-2026", "label": "LRZ 150 qubits", "company": "IQM Quantum Computers", "ticker": "IQMX", "modality": "Superconducting", "category": "deployment", "promise": "150-qubit second stage of the Euro-Q-Exa system at LRZ by the end of 2026.", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "by end of 2026", "due_date": "2026-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2026, "source_url": "https://iqm.tech/press-releases/iqm-selected-to-deliver-two-advanced-quantum-computers-as-part-of-euro-q-exa-hybrid-system/", "source_kind": "press release", "source_date": "2024-10-16", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": null, "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": null, "notes": null, "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [ "events:ms-iqmx-lrz150" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "IQMX-VTT150-2026", "label": "VTT 150 qubits (late 2026)", "company": "IQM Quantum Computers", "ticker": "IQMX", "modality": "Superconducting", "category": "deployment", "promise": "First 150-qubit stage of the VTT system arriving late 2026.", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "late 2026", "due_date": "2026-12-31", "due_precision": "quarter", "due_year": 2026, "source_url": "https://iqm.tech/blog/from-5-to-300-qubits-building-europes-largest-quantum-computer/", "source_kind": "company blog", "source_date": "2026-09-09", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": null, "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": null, "notes": null, "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [ "events:ms-iqmx-vtt150" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "INFQ-2026-SCALE", "label": "4,000 physical, 99.90%", "company": "Infleqtion", "ticker": "INFQ", "modality": "Neutral atom", "category": "qubit_count", "promise": "Rest of the 2026 roadmap column: 4,000 physical qubits, 99.90% gate performance and a hardware error-correction milestone.", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "by Dec 31, 2026", "due_date": "2026-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2026, "source_url": "https://infleqtion.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Quantum-Computer-Roadmap-September-2025.pdf", "source_kind": "roadmap", "source_date": "2025-09", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": null, "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "No public result yet for the qubit-count and gate targets as of the calendar review.", "notes": null, "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [ "events:ms-infq-2026" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "INFQ-30LQ-2026", "label": "30 logical qubits", "company": "Infleqtion", "ticker": "INFQ", "modality": "Neutral atom", "category": "milestone", "promise": "30+ logical qubits in 2026 (September 2025 roadmap).", "status": "measured", "verification": "company_reported", "due_label": "by Dec 31, 2026", "due_date": "2026-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2026, "source_url": "https://infleqtion.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Quantum-Computer-Roadmap-September-2025.pdf", "source_kind": "roadmap", "source_date": "2025-09", "delivered_on": "2026-09-24", "delivered_label": null, "on_time": true, "evidence_url": "https://ir.infleqtion.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/212/infleqtion-achieves-30-entangled-logical-qubits-on-its-sqale-quantum-computer", "evidence_date": "2026-09-24", "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "Infleqtion reported 30 entangled logical qubits from 80 physical qubits on Sqale (Sep 24, 2026). It lists going 'beyond post-selection' as a next priority.", "notes": "Roadmap PDF is an image file dated September 2025; no day given.", "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [ "events:ms-infq-2026", "claims:INFQ-20260924-01" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "INFQ-FY26-REVENUE", "label": "FY2026 revenue", "company": "Infleqtion", "ticker": "INFQ", "modality": "Neutral atom", "category": "financial_guidance", "promise": "FY2026 revenue of about $45.1M (corrected outlook).", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "FY2026", "due_date": "2026-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2026, "source_url": "https://ir.infleqtion.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001628280-26-057510/infq-20260630xex9918x17x20.htm", "source_kind": "filing", "source_date": "2026-08-17", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": null, "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "First-half 2026 revenue was $23.4M. The Aug 17 correction reflected revenue timing, per the company filing.", "notes": "Public URL taken from the INFQ roadmap record (reviewed 2026-10-07).", "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-07", "refs": [ "events:guide-infq-fy26" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "IONQ-FT-2026", "label": "12 logical qubits", "company": "IonQ", "ticker": "IONQ", "modality": "Trapped ion", "category": "fidelity", "promise": "2026 roadmap generation: 100-256+ physical qubits, 99.99% physical fidelity, 12 logical qubits, <1e-7 logical error.", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "by end of 2026", "due_date": "2026-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2026, "source_url": "https://www.ionq.com/roadmap", "source_kind": "roadmap", "source_date": "2026-10-17", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.17286", "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "256-qubit Superion announced (deliveries 2027); 99.99% shown on a two-ion test system; 12 logical qubits not shown publicly as far as we found.", "notes": null, "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-17", "refs": [ "claims:IONQ-20261017-01", "events:ms-ionq-ft26" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "IONQ-FY26-REVENUE", "label": "FY2026 revenue", "company": "IonQ", "ticker": "IONQ", "modality": "Trapped ion", "category": "financial_guidance", "promise": "FY2026 revenue guidance raised to $450M-$460M (from $280M-$290M), including SkyWater from July 31, 2026.", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "FY2026", "due_date": "2026-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2026, "source_url": "https://investors.ionq.com/news/news-details/2026/IonQ-Announces-Increased-Full-Year-2026-Financial-Outlook-Following-SkyWater-Acquisition/default.aspx", "source_kind": "press release", "source_date": "2026-09-08", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": null, "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "Guidance includes the acquired foundry business; quantum-only revenue not separated here.", "notes": "Resolves when FY2026 results are reported (date not announced).", "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-17", "refs": [ "claims:IONQ-20260908-02", "events:guide-ionq-fy26" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "IONQ-SUPERION-VALIDATION-2026", "label": "Superion 256 validation", "company": "IonQ", "ticker": "IONQ", "modality": "Trapped ion", "category": "milestone", "promise": "Superion 256 integrated-system validation in Q3 to Q4 2026.", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "Q3 to Q4 2026", "due_date": "2026-12-31", "due_precision": "half", "due_year": 2026, "source_url": "https://s28.q4cdn.com/828571518/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/IONQ_Q2-2026-Investor-Updates-vFinal-2026-08-05.pdf", "source_kind": "filing", "source_date": "2026-08-05", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": null, "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": null, "notes": null, "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [ "events:ms-ionq-superion-validation" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "PSQL-10K-2026", "label": "10,000 qubits (2026)", "company": "Pasqal", "ticker": "PSQL", "modality": "Neutral atom", "category": "qubit_count", "promise": "Roadmap pointing to 10,000 qubits in 2026 with a scalable logical-qubit architecture.", "status": "changed", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "2026", "due_date": "2026-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2026, "source_url": "https://www.pasqal.com/newsroom/pasqal-announces-new-roadmap-focused-on-business-utility-and-scaling-beyond-1000-qubits-towards-fault-tolerance-era/", "source_kind": "press release", "source_date": "2024-03-12", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": null, "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": "https://www.pasqal.com/newsroom/pasqal-releases-2025-roadmap/", "revised_date": "2025-06-12", "revised_label": "10,000 qubits by 2028", "successor_id": "PSQL-10K-2028", "outcome": "The June 2025 roadmap moved 10,000 qubits to 2028, before the original deadline. 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null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": null, "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "First-half 2026 revenue was $13.2M (41% to 47% of the guided range).", "notes": "Public URL taken from the QNT roadmap record (reviewed 2026-10-07); the calendar entry still points to the internal record.", "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-07", "refs": [ "events:guide-qnt-fy26" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "QUBT-2026-PRODUCTS", "label": "TFLN and vibrometer", "company": "Quantum Computing Inc.", "ticker": "QUBT", "modality": "Photonic", "category": "product_launch", "promise": "2026 product targets: wafer-scale thin-film lithium niobate process development and a field-deployable compact vibrometer.", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "2026", "due_date": "2026-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2026, "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1758009/000121390026106409/ea030759401ex99-1.htm", "source_kind": "filing", "source_date": "2026-10", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": null, "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": null, "notes": "October 2026 investor deck (8-K exhibit), slide 13; exact filing day not recorded upstream.", "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [ "events:ms-qubt-2026-deck" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "QUBT-NEURAWAVE-2026", "label": "NeuraWave units", "company": "Quantum Computing Inc.", "ticker": "QUBT", "modality": "Photonic", "category": "deployment", "promise": "Deliver five NeuraWave photonic reservoir-computing systems to Planck Dynamics during 2026.", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "by end of 2026", "due_date": "2026-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2026, "source_url": "https://quantumcomputinginc.com/news/press-releases/2026/quantum-computing-inc.-announces-framework-agreement-with-planck-dynamics-to-deploy-neurawave-photonic-reservoir-computer-as-a-foundational-platform-for-next-generation-ai-applications", "source_kind": "press release", "source_date": "2026-06-18", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": null, "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": null, "notes": null, "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [ "events:ms-qubt-neurawave" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "RGTI-108Q-995-2026", "label": "108 qubits at 99.5%", "company": "Rigetti Computing", "ticker": "RGTI", "modality": "Superconducting", "category": "fidelity", "promise": "Drive Cepheus-1-108Q to ~99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity later in 2026 (from ~99.1% at ~60 ns).", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "later 2026", "due_date": "2026-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2026, "source_url": "https://investors.rigetti.com/static-files/efa8119d-eaf4-44ee-a3c3-8cd2fdae7a23", "source_kind": "press release", "source_date": "2026-08-06", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1838359/000110465926091979/rgti-20260806xex99d1.htm", "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "Currently ~99.1% median 2Q (Q2 2026 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null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": null, "notes": null, "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [ "events:ms-rgti-cdac" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "RGTI-ROADMAP-UPDATE-2026", "label": "Roadmap update", "company": "Rigetti Computing", "ticker": "RGTI", "modality": "Superconducting", "category": "disclosure", "promise": "Publish an updated technology roadmap, with milestones and timing, later in 2026.", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "later 2026", "due_date": "2026-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2026, "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1838359/000110465926040377/tm2611278d1_ex99-1.htm", "source_kind": "filing", "source_date": "2026-04-07", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": null, "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": null, "notes": null, "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [ "events:ms-rgti-roadmap-update" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "XNDU-LOSS-2026", "label": "Loss indicator 24.1x", "company": "Xanadu Quantum Technologies", "ticker": "XNDU", "modality": "Photonic", "category": "fidelity", "promise": "Key optical-loss indicator at 24.1x by 2026, on a path to 1.0x by 2030.", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "2026", "due_date": "2026-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2026, "source_url": "https://investors.xanadu.ai/news-releases/news-release-details/xanadu-charts-path-over-1000-logical-qubits-2031", "source_kind": "press release", "source_date": 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2027, "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1758009/000121390026106409/ea030759401ex99-1.htm", "source_kind": "filing", "source_date": "2026-10", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": null, "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": null, "notes": null, "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [ "events:ms-qubt-qkd-auth" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "QBTS-DR49-2027", "label": "49-qubit dual-rail", "company": "D-Wave Quantum", "ticker": "QBTS", "modality": "Superconducting (gate model)", "category": "milestone", "promise": "Complete a 49-physical-qubit dual-rail gate-model system in 2027, with an expected 20x error reduction.", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "2027", "due_date": "2027-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2027, "source_url": "https://www.dwavequantum.com/company/newsroom/press-release/d-wave-charts-a-new-course-to-fault-tolerant-quantum-computing-with-gate-model-roadmap/", "source_kind": "press release", "source_date": "2026-06-01", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": null, "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": null, "notes": null, "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [ "events:ms-qbts-dr49" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "IBM-COCKATOO-2027", "label": "Cockatoo", "company": "IBM", "ticker": "IBM", "modality": "Superconducting", "category": "milestone", "promise": "Cockatoo in 2027: demonstrate entanglement 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"origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "IONQ-10K-2027", "label": "10,000 physical qubits", "company": "IonQ", "ticker": "IONQ", "modality": "Trapped ion", "category": "qubit_count", "promise": "2027 roadmap generation: 10,000 physical qubits, 99.99% fidelity, 800 logical qubits.", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "2027", "due_date": "2027-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2027, "source_url": "https://www.ionq.com/roadmap", "source_kind": "roadmap", "source_date": "2026-10-17", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": null, "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "Promise; ~40x more physical qubits than Superion 256.", "notes": null, "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-17", "refs": [ 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FIU's own announcement: https://news.fiu.edu/2026/miamis-first-quantum-computer-coming-to-fiu.html", "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [ "events:ms-ionq-fiu" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "IONQ-NVAQC-2027", "label": "NVAQC install", "company": "IonQ", "ticker": "IONQ", "modality": "Trapped ion", "category": "deployment", "promise": "Install a Superion system at NVIDIA's accelerated quantum research center in 2027.", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "2027", "due_date": "2027-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2027, "source_url": "https://www.ionq.com/news/ionq-to-advance-quantum-supercomputing-by-bringing-first-qpu-to-nvidia-accelerated-quantum-research-center", "source_kind": "press release", "source_date": "2026-09-23", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": null, "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": null, "notes": null, "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [ "events:ms-ionq-nvaqc" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "IONQ-SUPERION-DELIVERY-2027", "label": "Superion 256 deliveries", "company": "IonQ", "ticker": "IONQ", "modality": "Trapped ion", "category": "product_launch", "promise": "Superion 256 (sixth generation, 256 physical qubits, QPUs fabricated at SkyWater): orders open, initial customer deliveries scheduled for 2027.", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "early 2027 (Q1 to Q2)", "due_date": "2027-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2027, "source_url": "https://investors.ionq.com/news/news-details/2026/IonQ-Launches-Superion-Product-Line-Industry-Leading-Upgradeable-Platform-Designed-to-Scale-Manufacturable-Fault-Tolerant-Quantum-Computing/default.aspx", "source_kind": "press release", "source_date": "2026-09-08", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": "https://www.ionq.com/blog/innovating-manufacturing-and-scaling-highlights-from-ionq-investor-day-2026", "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "No full-system benchmark published at launch.", "notes": "Press release says customer deliveries in 2027; Investor Day language and an earlier investor update point to early 2027 (Q1 to Q2 commissioning).", "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-17", "refs": [ "claims:IONQ-20260908-01", "events:ms-ionq-superion-delivery" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "PSQL-VELA-2027", "label": "Vela, 20 logical", "company": "Pasqal", "ticker": "PSQL", "modality": "Neutral atom", "category": "product_launch", "promise": "Vela, Pasqal's first product aimed at quantum advantage (200+ physical qubits), and about 20 logical qubits in 2027.", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "2027", "due_date": "2027-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2027, "source_url": "https://www.pasqal.com/newsroom/pasqal-releases-2025-roadmap/", "source_kind": "press release", "source_date": "2025-06-12", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": null, "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": null, "notes": null, "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [ "events:ms-psql-vela-20logical" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "QNT-SOL-2027", "label": "Sol", "company": "Quantinuum", "ticker": "QNT", "modality": "Trapped ion", "category": "product_launch", "promise": "Sol in 2027: first commercially available 2D-grid system, hundreds of physical qubits, two-qubit gate error <2e-4, ~2x faster than Helios.", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "2027", "due_date": "2027-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2027, "source_url": "https://www.quantinuum.com/blog/technical-perspective-by-the-end-of-the-decade-we-will-deliver-universal-fault-tolerant-quantum-computing", "source_kind": "company blog", "source_date": "2024-09-10", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": "https://www.quantinuum.com/press-releases/quantinuum-reports-second-quarter-2026-results", "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "Q2 2026: trap chip back from fabrication, in product validation.", "notes": null, "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-17", "refs": [ "claims:QNT-20240910-02", "events:ms-qnt-sol" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "XNDU-FACTORY-2027", "label": "Qubit Factory", "company": "Xanadu Quantum Technologies", "ticker": "XNDU", "modality": "Photonic", "category": "milestone", "promise": "Build the Qubit Factory in 2026 to 2027.", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "2026 to 2027", "due_date": "2027-12-31", "due_precision": "range", "due_year": 2027, "source_url": "https://investors.xanadu.ai/news-releases/news-release-details/xanadu-charts-path-over-1000-logical-qubits-2031", "source_kind": "press release", "source_date": "2026-08-31", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": null, "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": null, "notes": null, "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [ "events:ms-xndu-qubit-factory" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "INFQ-100LQ-2028", "label": "100 logical qubits", "company": "Infleqtion", "ticker": "INFQ", "modality": "Neutral atom", "category": "milestone", "promise": "Target of 100 logical qubits in 2028 and 1,000 by 2030 on Sqale.", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "2028", "due_date": "2028-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2028, "source_url": "https://ir.infleqtion.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/212/infleqtion-achieves-30-entangled-logical-qubits-on-its-sqale-quantum-computer", "source_kind": "press release", "source_date": "2026-09-24", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": "https://infleqtion.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Quantum-Computer-Roadmap-September-2025.pdf", "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "Promise; also on Sept 2025 roadmap PDF.", "notes": null, "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-17", "refs": [ "claims:INFQ-20260924-02" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "IONQ-20K-2028", "label": "20,000 physical qubits", "company": "IonQ", "ticker": "IONQ", "modality": "Trapped ion", "category": "qubit_count", "promise": "2028 roadmap step: 20,000 physical qubits and 1,600 logical qubits.", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "2028", "due_date": "2028-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2028, "source_url": "https://www.ionq.com/roadmap", "source_kind": "roadmap", "source_date": "2026-10-17", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": null, "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": null, "notes": "Roadmap page has no publication date; source_date is the date the page was captured (claims tracker, Oct 17, 2026).", "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [ "events:ms-ionq-ft28" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "PSQL-10K-2028", "label": "10,000 qubits (2028)", "company": "Pasqal", "ticker": "PSQL", "modality": "Neutral atom", "category": "qubit_count", "promise": "Reach 10,000 physical qubits by 2028.", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "2028", "due_date": "2028-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2028, "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2119292/000121390026098421/ea0304681-01.htm", "source_kind": "filing", "source_date": "2026-09-09", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": null, "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "Investor materials also frame 10,000+ physical qubits by 2029.", "notes": "First stated in the June 12, 2025 roadmap; restated in the Sep 9, 2026 Form F-1.", "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [ "events:ms-psql-10k" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "RGTI-1000Q-2029", "label": "1,000 qubits at 99.9%", "company": "Rigetti Computing", "ticker": "RGTI", "modality": "Superconducting", "category": "fidelity", "promise": "Path to ~1,000 qubits at ~99.9% two-qubit fidelity with <50 ns gates over roughly three years, which Rigetti says is needed for quantum advantage.", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "about 2029 (roughly three years from Aug 2026)", "due_date": "2029-08-31", "due_precision": "approx", "due_year": 2029, "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1838359/000110465926091979/rgti-20260806xex99d1.htm", "source_kind": "filing", "source_date": "2026-08-06", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": null, "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "'Roughly three years' from Aug 2026; date is our approximation.", "notes": null, "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-17", "refs": [ "claims:RGTI-20260806-02", "events:ms-rgti-advantage-system" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "QBTS-ADV3-2029", "label": "Advantage3 20,000 qubits", "company": "D-Wave Quantum", "ticker": "QBTS", "modality": "Annealing", "category": "qubit_count", "promise": "Advantage3 annealer via multi-chip packaging: 20,000-qubit system available in 2029, ultimately 100,000 qubits by 2031.", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "2029", "due_date": "2029-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2029, "source_url": "https://www.dwavequantum.com/company/newsroom/press-release/d-wave-reports-second-quarter-2026-results/", "source_kind": "earnings release", "source_date": "2026-08-06", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": null, "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "Promise; new I/O prototype design announced.", "notes": null, "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-17", "refs": [ "claims:QBTS-20260806-01", "events:ms-qbts-adv3-20k" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "IBM-STARLING-2029", "label": "Starling 200 logical", "company": "IBM", "ticker": "IBM", "modality": "Superconducting", "category": "milestone", "promise": "Starling, a large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computer with 200 logical qubits running 100 million gates, to be delivered in 2029 at a new Poughkeepsie, NY data center.", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "2029", "due_date": "2029-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2029, "source_url": "https://newsroom.ibm.com/2025-06-10-IBM-Sets-the-Course-to-Build-Worlds-First-Large-Scale,-Fault-Tolerant-Quantum-Computer-at-New-IBM-Quantum-Data-Center", "source_kind": "press release", "source_date": "2025-06-10", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": "https://www.ibm.com/roadmaps/quantum/", "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "Date unchanged since the December 2023 roadmap. A 2028 proof of concept is to demonstrate magic-state injection across modules.", "notes": null, "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-17", "refs": [ "claims:IBM-20250610-01", "events:ms-ibm-starling", "scorecard:11" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "MSFT-2029", "label": "Scalable quantum computer", "company": "Microsoft", "ticker": "MSFT", "modality": "Topological", "category": "milestone", "promise": "A scalable quantum computer that is commercially valuable by 2029.", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "2029", "due_date": "2029-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2029, "source_url": "https://news.microsoft.com/source/features/innovation/majorana-2-microsoft-discovery-agentic-ai/", "source_kind": "company news", "source_date": "2026-06-02", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": null, "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "Announced with the Majorana 2 chip, which Microsoft says has qubit lifetimes averaging 20 seconds.", "notes": "Microsoft says the 2029 target cuts its original timeline in half; the original date is not linked here. The calendar entry points to our own article; this row uses Microsoft's page instead.", "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [ "events:ms-msft-2029" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "PSQL-200LQ-2029", "label": "200+ logical qubits", "company": "Pasqal", "ticker": "PSQL", "modality": "Neutral atom", "category": "milestone", "promise": "Goal of 200+ logical qubits by 2029.", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "2029", "due_date": "2029-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2029, "source_url": "https://www.pasqal.com/technology/roadmap/", "source_kind": "roadmap", "source_date": "2026-10-17", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": null, "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "Promise; 1,024-atom defect-free register reported H1 2026.", "notes": "The June 2025 roadmap release gave 100 logical qubits by 2029 and 200 in 2030; the current roadmap page says 200+ by 2029.", "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-17", "refs": [ "claims:PSQL-20261017-02" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "QNT-APOLLO-2029", "label": "Apollo", "company": "Quantinuum", "ticker": "QNT", "modality": "Trapped ion", "category": "milestone", "promise": "Apollo by 2029: universal, fully fault-tolerant system (thousands of physical qubits, hundreds of logical qubits).", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "2029", "due_date": "2029-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2029, "source_url": "https://www.quantinuum.com/press-releases/quantinuum-unveils-accelerated-roadmap-to-achieve-universal-fault-tolerant-quantum-computing-by-2030", "source_kind": "press release", "source_date": "2024-09-10", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": "https://www.quantinuum.com/press-releases/quantinuum-reports-second-quarter-2026-results", "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "Q2 2026 release: 'Apollo remains on schedule for 2029'.", "notes": "The 2024 release headline said 'by 2030'; the June 2025 blog, the 2026 prospectus and the Q2 2026 results say 2029.", "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-17", "refs": [ "claims:QNT-20240910-03", "events:ms-qnt-apollo" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "XNDU-1000LQ-2029", "label": "1,000 logical by 2029", "company": "Xanadu Quantum Technologies", "ticker": "XNDU", "modality": "Photonic", "category": "qubit_count", "promise": "A fault-tolerant computer with up to 100,000 physical qubits and up to 1,000 logical qubits by 2029.", "status": "changed", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "2029", "due_date": "2029-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2029, "source_url": "https://investors.xanadu.ai/news-releases/news-release-details/xanadu-expected-become-first-and-only-publicly-traded-pure-play", "source_kind": "press release", "source_date": "2025-11-03", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": null, "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": "https://investors.xanadu.ai/news-releases/news-release-details/xanadu-charts-path-over-1000-logical-qubits-2031", "revised_date": "2026-08-31", "revised_label": "up to 200 logical by 2029, 1,000+ by 2031", "successor_id": "XNDU-200LQ-2029", "outcome": "The Aug 31, 2026 roadmap targets up to 200 logical qubits by 2029, up to 500 by 2030 and 1,000+ by 2031.", "notes": "An intermediate target of up to 500 logical qubits by 2029 (March 2026) is in the XNDU roadmap record but not linked here. SEC copy of the 2025 release: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2054174/000121390025104918/ea026354401ex99-1_crane.htm", "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [], "origin": "added", "provenance": "Added 2026-10-20: both Xanadu IR releases fetched 2026-10-20; lead from XNDU roadmap record G6." }, { "id": "XNDU-200LQ-2029", "label": "200 logical by 2029", "company": "Xanadu Quantum Technologies", "ticker": "XNDU", "modality": "Photonic", "category": "qubit_count", "promise": "Up to 200 logical qubits by 2029 (then up to 500 by 2030 and 1,000+ by 2031).", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "2029", "due_date": "2029-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2029, "source_url": "https://investors.xanadu.ai/news-releases/news-release-details/xanadu-charts-path-over-1000-logical-qubits-2031", "source_kind": "press release", "source_date": "2026-08-31", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": null, "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": null, "notes": null, "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [], "origin": "added", "provenance": "Added 2026-10-20 from the Xanadu Aug 31, 2026 IR release (fetched 2026-10-20)." }, { "id": "XNDU-FT-2029", "label": "Fault tolerance", "company": "Xanadu Quantum Technologies", "ticker": "XNDU", "modality": "Photonic", "category": "milestone", "promise": "Fault-tolerance milestone in 2028 to 2029.", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "2028 to 2029", "due_date": "2029-12-31", "due_precision": "range", "due_year": 2029, "source_url": "https://investors.xanadu.ai/news-releases/news-release-details/xanadu-charts-path-over-1000-logical-qubits-2031", "source_kind": "press release", "source_date": "2026-08-31", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": null, "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": null, "notes": "The XNDU roadmap record says an April 2026 release put fault tolerance 'by 2028'; that release is not linked here, so the widening is noted but not scored as a separate changed row.", "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [ "events:ms-xndu-ft" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "IONQ-2M-2030", "label": "2,000,000 physical qubits", "company": "IonQ", "ticker": "IONQ", "modality": "Trapped ion", "category": "qubit_count", "promise": "2030 roadmap target: 2,000,000 physical qubits and 80,000 logical qubits (<1e-12 logical error); 2029 step: 200,000 physical / 8,000 logical.", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "2030", "due_date": "2030-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2030, "source_url": "https://www.ionq.com/roadmap", "source_kind": "roadmap", "source_date": "2026-10-17", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": "https://investors.ionq.com/news/news-details/2026/IonQ-to-Acquire-SkyWater-Technology-Creating-the-Only-Vertically-Integrated-Full-Stack-Quantum-Platform-Company/default.aspx", "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "Promise. Jan 2026 SkyWater release said functional testing of 200,000-qubit QPUs is expected in 2028.", "notes": null, "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-17", "refs": [ "claims:IONQ-20261017-03" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "QBTS-100LQ-2032", "label": "100 logical qubits", "company": "D-Wave Quantum", "ticker": "QBTS", "modality": "Superconducting (gate model)", "category": "milestone", "promise": "Gate-model roadmap end point: a 100-logical-qubit system performing >1 million operations by 2032 (10 logical qubits in 2030; 49 qubits 2027; 181 qubits 2028).", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "2032", "due_date": "2032-12-31", "due_precision": "year", "due_year": 2032, "source_url": "https://www.dwavequantum.com/company/newsroom/press-release/d-wave-charts-a-new-course-to-fault-tolerant-quantum-computing-with-gate-model-roadmap/", "source_kind": "press release", "source_date": "2026-06-01", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": null, "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "Long-dated promise; targets Lambda of 10.", "notes": null, "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-17", "refs": [ "claims:QBTS-20260601-02" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null }, { "id": "IBM-BLUEJAY-2033", "label": "Blue Jay 2,000 logical qubits", "company": "IBM", "ticker": "IBM", "modality": "Superconducting", "category": "milestone", "promise": "Blue Jay by 2033 or later: 1 billion quantum operations over 2,000 logical qubits.", "status": "promised", "verification": "checked", "due_label": "2033 or later", "due_date": "2033-12-31", "due_precision": "open_ended", "due_year": 2033, "source_url": "https://newsroom.ibm.com/2025-06-10-IBM-Sets-the-Course-to-Build-Worlds-First-Large-Scale,-Fault-Tolerant-Quantum-Computer-at-New-IBM-Quantum-Data-Center", "source_kind": "press release", "source_date": "2025-06-10", "delivered_on": null, "delivered_label": null, "on_time": null, "evidence_url": "https://www.ibm.com/roadmaps/quantum/", "evidence_date": null, "revised_url": null, "revised_date": null, "revised_label": null, "successor_id": null, "outcome": "'2033+' on IBM's page: open-ended.", "notes": "Wording follows IBM's June 10, 2025 release ('1 billion quantum operations over 2,000 logical qubits'). IBM's roadmap page says 'a 2000 qubits system, called Blue Jay'.", "advantage_rule": null, "advantage_claim_url": null, "advantage_published": null, "advantage_rebuttal_url": null, "advantage_rebuttal_date": null, "date_checked": "2026-10-20", "refs": [ "claims:IBM-20250610-02", "scorecard:12" ], "origin": "derived", "provenance": null } ] }